[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N13W THEN ALONG 6N15W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 3N27W 2N33W TO S OF THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 19W-36W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN
10W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE STRONG UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS EXTENDING
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W.  AT 28/0900
UTC A 1003 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N93W WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
EXTENDING S ALONG TO 24N92W TO 22N95W THEN CONTINUES AS
STATIONARY FRONT INTO MEXICO JUST S OF TUXPAN. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE 1003 LOW ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA ALONG
30N87W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN
CEDAR KEY AND TAMPA THEN INTO THE W ATLC NEAR MELBOURNE.
SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF
27N E OF 89W TO OVER FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF N OF 25N E OF 92W. THIS IS LEAVING THE SW GULF UNDER
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NESDIS HAZARD
MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FIRES OVER
S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE STILL SPREADING SMOKE
ACROSS THE SW GULF. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR MOBILE BAY TONIGHT
WITH THE FRONT E OF THE LOW LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT AND W OF
THE LOW EXTENDING AS A COLD FRONT TO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE FRONT WILL PASS SE OF THE AREA WED NIGHT WITH
RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE W ON THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND EXTENDS OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER NE HAITI. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING.
NESDIS LATEST HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE FIRES OVER HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN ARE SPREADING
SMOKE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND N INTO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SE CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED AND REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO E
HONDURAS THU NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS NE HAITI THIS
MORNING. LOW RAINFALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE NORM FOR
MOST OF THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION WHERE DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE W INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC. A COLD FRONT AT 28/0900 UTC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N61W TO
28N69W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 28N74W TO ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 25N W OF 73W WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 75W-80W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 30N58W TO 26N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 54W-60W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC BY A 1023 MB HIGH BETWEEN MADIERA AND
AZORES ISLANDS AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N24W ALONG
23N40W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. THE E PORTION OF THE W ATLC
FRONT WILL CONTINUE S TO ALONG 32N54W TO 24N65W TONIGHT WHILE
THE W PORTION REMAINS N OF CAPE CANAVERAL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO W ATLC LATE WED. THE NEW COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N79W TO STUART FLORIDA WED NIGHT AND
FROM 31N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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