[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W ATLC N OF 30N BETWEEN 59W
AND 63W UNTIL EARLY MORNING MON. THIS GALE WARNING IS A RESULT
OF A 991 MB LOW NEAR 36N60W WITH THE GALE FORCE WINDS DIPPING
JUST S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS FROM THE AFRICA INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W AND EXTENDS TO 4N18W WHERE THE ITCZ
CONTINUES ALONG 2N27W 1N34W THE S OF THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-8N E OF 16W TO THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N E OF 13W TO THE COAST
OF LIBERIA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 15W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
CURRENTLY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATES
THE GULF WATERS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND OVER THE N GULF. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER
THE N GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 25N96W ALONG
28N88W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY. FIRES OVER S MEXICO AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE SPREADING SMOKE ACROSS THE SW AND
S/CENTRAL GULF. THIS AREA OF SMOKE IS SHIFTING E TOWARD THE SE
GULF. A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT S INTO THE N GULF EARLY MON THEN RETREAT N AGAIN TUE. A
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A STRONG FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO THE ENTER THE GULF TUE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
PRECEDING IT ON MON. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE GULF
THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE W ATLC. AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS ARE WINDING DOWN ACROSS
CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING ISOLATED SHOWERS
INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER
TONIGHT. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED SMOKE IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT OFFSHORE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA THEN STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SE AND S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BY WED. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT/EARLY THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND E
HAITI TONIGHT. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT IS GENERATING
SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
60/90 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO
29N74W. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGHS ARE MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ATLC AND ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N BETWEEN 36W-62W. THE
ATLC IS DOMINATED AT THE SURFACE BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC BY A PAIR OF 1024 MB HIGHS NEAR 33N24W
AND 26N33W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 26N33W ALONG
21N46W TO 21N70W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
WILL SHIFT S INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM
31N63W TO 27N68W TO 25N75W EARLY TUE REACHING FROM 31N59W TO
26N66W WITH A WARM FRONT FROM 26N66W TO BEYOND 31N78W EARLY WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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