[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO
04N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N32W 01N40W
TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SUPPORTS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXTENDING FROM IDAHO SE TO NORTHERN MEXICO AND ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA
WESTWARD IS ALONG THE NORTHERN BASIN FROM 29N83W TO 28N90W TO
27N97W TO A 1004 MB LOW OVER NE MEXICO. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW A
HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE OVER THE W-NW GULF THAT IS
ENHANCING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 90W AND
94W AND SUPPORTS SEA FOG ELSEWHERE N OF 26N W OF 90W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTICED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS W OF 90W S OF THE
TROUGH AXIS ARE FROM THE S-SE RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KT. ON THE
REMAINDER BASIN S OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WINDS RANGE BETWEEN FROM
10 TO 15 KT AND ARE FROM THE S-SW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE DOMINATE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
GULF...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INLAND WILL EMERGE FROM THE TEXAS
COAST MONDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE GULF
THROUGH WED WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC LINGERS OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CLOUDS INLAND.
A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE IS ALONG THE COASTS FROM
VENEZUELA TO COSTA RICA THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 83W. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TRADES OF 20
KT ARE OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 76W.
TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC LINGERS OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CLOUDS INLAND.
HOWEVER...THE ISLAND IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE THAT SUPPORTS STABILITY AND
FAIR WEATHER. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA SUPPORTS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NW ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 30N49W TO 27N52W WHERE IT
STARTS TO DISSIPATE TO 25N57W...JUST S OF A 1015 MB DISSIPATING
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N58W. WEST OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER...TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
N OF 26N W OF 65W. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW
N ATLC WATERS MONDAY MORNING REACHING THE CENTRAL BASIN WED
MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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