[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO
4N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 35W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S45W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. A SURFACE TROUGH
TRAILS SOUTHWEST OF THIS LOW AND RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA TO 29N86W TO 27N91W. CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. CONVECTION OVER MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS NEARING THE SHORELINE ALONG THE WESTERN
GULF. THIS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION MAY AFFECT WATERS FROM
21N TO 23N BETWEEN 95W AND THE COAST OF MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT AROUND WEAK WESTERN
ATLC HIGH PRESSURE. MODELS ARE FORECASTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY WITH A
FURTHER INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INTO
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1006 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W SUPPORTS WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH HAS ENTERED THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN TO 11N BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA COAST AND 78W.
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN WHICH INHIBITS DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE TRADE WIND FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE GREATER AND LESSER
ANTILLES. 10 TO 15 KT TRADE WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE
BASIN...EXCEPT FOR WINDS APPROACHING 25 KT WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND WITHIN 100 NM NORTH OF THE
COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 85W TO 87W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
ISLAND MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FAIR WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE ISLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ISLAND ON SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CAROLINA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
OFFSHORE OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTHERN ATLC WATERS. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW EXTENDS OVER OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NORTH
OF 30N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. THIS CONVECTION IS SPREADING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL AFFECT WATERS N OF 30N
EASTWARD TO 70 W THROUGH THE MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1015
MB IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR 30N68W AND IS DISSIPATING TODAY
AS THE SYSTEM EXITING THE US COAST MOVES EASTWARD. FARTHER
EAST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR
32N51W TO 24N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM
SE OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 28N. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A STATIONARY
1022MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 24N33W...WHILE A 1017 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 29N26W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS LOW. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION OFF THE EASTERN US WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD TO 60W. ON MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE
ATLC OFF THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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