[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
05N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 06W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COMPLEX MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN NORTH ATLC OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
DISCUSSION AREA IN THE SW NORTH ATLC EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ENTERING THE GULF WATERS NEAR
29N83W TO 28N87W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE COAST OF
CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W. WHILE THE COLD FRONT REMAINS
RELATIVELY PRECIPITATION-FREE THIS AFTERNOON...S-SE RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE FRONTAL
ZONE AND RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF
26N W OF 90W...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ACROSS INLAND
EASTERN TEXAS AND THE ARKLATEX REGION. OTHERWISE...SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...A WEAK RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE SE GULF
TO THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
PROVIDING GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS.
THEREAFTER...A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO
EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY MONDAY AND
QUICKLY LIFT NORTHWARD BY LATE MONDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE GULF COAST WITH A SECONDARY FRONT TO
EMERGE OFF THE NW GULF COAST EARLY TUESDAY. STRONGER NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF WATERS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W WITH A MAJORITY OF THE BASIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS FLOW REMAINS
VERY DRY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. WHILE AN
OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER BREEZE CONDITIONS
ARE NOTED ON THE LATEST ASCAT PASS FROM 24/1414 UTC WITHIN 120
NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W-77W. IT IS ALSO LIKELY
THAT STRONGER TRADES ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS DUE
TO MORE LOCALIZED EFFECTS. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS ALONG 20N FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 80W PROVIDING FOR
VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WITHIN DRY AIR ALOFT. THESE OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG
20N FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COMPLEX MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND NEAR 44N67W WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE IN THE VICINITY OF 35N64W. GIVEN THE
DYNAMICS IN PLACE...THEY SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
BERMUDA NEAR 32N64W TO 31N68W THAT BECOMES A WARM FRONT TO THE
NW INTO A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N74W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
TRAILS TO THE SW FROM THIS LOW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
29N81W. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL ENERGY IS E OF 70W WHICH IS
RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM
EAST OF THE EASTERNMOST COLD FRONT AND BETWEEN 30N-32N BETWEEN
67W-72W. IN ADDITION...A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED SE
OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 29N76W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER PARENT TROUGH
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...IS IN THE VICINITY OF 30N58W AND SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N54W TO 26N60W TO 25N69W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT W OF 58W...AND FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 45W-56W. AS ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR N OF 32N WITH A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF NEAR GALE CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA IN THE VICINITY OF 35N42W WITH THE NEWLY
DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE AREA. FINALLY...A PAIR OF MERGING 1022 MB
HIGHS INFLUENCE THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 25N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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