[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W TO 4N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
2N22W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF 2N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 2W-6W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 2W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 6W-
19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SE CONUS. THIS IS DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY INLAND ALONG THE N GULF COAST WITH A SEABREEZE SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER MEXICO AND ARE
SPREADING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER S TEXAS AND INTO
THE GULF WATERS FROM 22N-28N W OF 95W. A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E GULF 27N85W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE ABOVE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE GULF OVERNIGHT AND STALL OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF SAT NIGHT
AND DISSIPATE ON SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WITH NW FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WINDING DOWN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAINING OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF.
HONDURAS AS WELL AS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WINDING DOWN WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN OVER SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MOST OF HAITI
TONIGHT. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRI WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE N. THIS WILL INCREASE SHOWERS SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE NW ATLC
DIPS S OVER THE W ATLC N OF 29N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS
N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OF THE W ATLC AND IS ALONG THE N GULF
COAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A REMNANT COLD FRONT IS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 32N41W 31N44W TO 30N50W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 30N54W 27N62W 25N68W THEN DISSIPATES
ALONG 25N73W TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS W OF
THE FRONT NEAR 20N66W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E
ATLC OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS THEN W-SW ALONG 20N36W TO 16N50W.
THIS IS SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA AND A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS NEAR 32N19W ALONG 26N28W TO 22N39W.
THIS SURFACE TROUGH SPLITS THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT
WITH A PAIR OF 1022 MB HIGHS NEAR 24N31W AND 25N36W. CENTRAL
ATLC FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY FRI EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST FRI MORNING AND QUICKLY REACH FROM NEAR
BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS
IT REACHES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES
SAT AND SAT NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW MOVING E OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE SAT NIGHT WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT OFF THE NE FLORIDA
COAST SAT NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS
ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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