[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221651 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 03N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W TO THE N COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 01S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05S TO 05N
BETWEEN 11W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER
THE WESTERN ATLC THAT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT BEFORE
CROSSING SOUTH FL AND OVER THE GULF NEAR 26N82W TO 26N91W. A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE FL
STRAITS NEAR 24N80W TO 23N83W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN THE FL PENINSULA AND 89W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE TX COAST FROM
26N TO 28N ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF FROM 24N91W TO
19N93W. NO CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH THIS TROUGH. THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE FORECASTING THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER TX WILL MOVE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD BRING AN
ENHANCED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS INHIBITING
ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...ATLC
RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND LOW COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. OTHER THAN
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND MOISTURE...FAIR
WEATHER IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE BASIN.

HISPANIOLA...

MAINLY DAYTIME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED OVER THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N63W TO 27N74W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO SOUTH FL NEAR 26N80W. A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N74W...OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM SE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
EAST OF 77W. FARTHER EAST...A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
30N46W...AND ANOTHER HIGH OF 1022 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN ATLC NEAR 33N13W. A FRONTAL SYSTEM LIES BETWEEN THESE
TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA OF
DISCUSSION AS A COLD FRONT NEAR 32N26W AND EXTENDS TO 25N41W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 27N51W. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BOTH FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION LIKELY
ALONG AND SE OF THE WESTERNMOST FRONTAL SYSTEM.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO


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