[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W TO 6N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
1N19W 1N26W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 16W-32W AND FROM 1N-3N W OF 46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE N GULF COAST NEAR MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS
ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF WATERS. A SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA
SUPPORTING A FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE TO
TAMPA BAY WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 28N84W TO INLAND OVER
THE N GULF COAST NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM 29N87W ALONG 27N91W TO 27N94W WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
90 NM S AND 60 NM N OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-92W. THIS
IS LEAVING THE S GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
OVER THE NE GULF WILL EXIT BY SAT. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW AND N/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO E PANAMA/COLOMBIA COVERING THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER RIDGE INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...SW HAITI...AND JAMAICA. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ARE BANKING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF NICARAGUA AND W OF 81W. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT
ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER SW HAITI. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN. AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD
TODAY AND SAT. HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE SUN AFTERNOON/
EVENING COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN CHANCE SHOWERS OVER GREATER
PORTION OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA SUPPORTING A FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW NEAR
32N78W ALONG 30N78W THEN ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE
CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE N/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N38W ALONG 28N46W TO 27N55W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 27N67W THEN NE ALONG 31N74W TO THE SAME
1015 MB LOW NEAR 32N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-31W BETWEEN THE ABOVE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
27N60W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND IS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N56W TO 22N62W.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC AND SE OF THE FRONT WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 1025 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES THROUGH 32N24W
26N30W TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 23N42W. THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE E ATLC TODAY THROUGH SAT. THE W ATLC
LOW WILL CONTINUE NE TODAY LIFTING THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE
FRONT NE AS A WARM FRONT AND DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT W OF THE
LOW TO THE E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS. THE WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE NE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THAT COLD FRONT REACHES FROM
31N75W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN STALL ALONG
27N ON SUN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MON NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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