[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150627 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

CORRECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W SW
TO 01N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02S27W TO
THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S40W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N E OF 22W
AND FROM 06S TO 06N W OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM KANSAS TO A
BASE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORT A 1014 MB LOW OVER
EASTERN TEXAS FROM WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 30N93W
SW TO 25N97W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM 27N92W TO 22N95W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AT THE UPPER LEVELS
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS W OF A LINE FROM
29N84W SW TO 25N86W TO 19N94W. AN UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS NEAR 83W
ALONG WITH DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS PROVIDE STABILITY AND
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN WHERE SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES. VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE BASIN-WIDE. THE
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW GULF WILL DISSIPATE BY WED MORNING
LEAVING AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE W GULF WHILE
RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF THE W GULF THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN AND SE CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ON THE
W AND SW BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1008 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA.
THIS IS SUPPORTING A SLIGHLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THUS RESULTING IN
TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 66W AND 79W...THE STRONGEST ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. SSMI
TPW IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND
SOUTHERN CUBA COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ON NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND NORTHERN PANAMA COASTAL WATERS.
FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
FROM ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HAITI...THUS ENHANCING CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS EXTENDING TO ADJACENT WATERS TO INCLUDE THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND AS
INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY...WHICH IS
SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING WHEN A LOW LEVEL
MOIST AIRMASS ENTER THE ISLAND TO ENHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN
EXTENDING SW TO A BASE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORT A
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N48W TO A 1021 MB LOW NEAR 27N59W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 260 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEHWHERE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
LATER THIS MORNING LEAVING AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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