[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON APR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA AND
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE W ATLC. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE
TO GALE FORCE AGAIN TUE NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE ON WED NIGHT. PLEASE
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N16W ALONG 6N13W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W. THE ITCZ
IS NOT EVIDENT THIS EVENING. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 16W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA N TO NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS
MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND COUPLED WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER ALABAMA... LOUISIANA...AND
MISSISSIPPI. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST
FROM THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER TO GALVESTON TEXAS. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE SE CONUS INCLUDING THE
GULF OF MEXICO E OF 96W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR
WEATHER THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN SE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL NW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
19N78W ACROSS JAMAICA TO 15N76W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SATELLITE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND THUS
DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WHERE UPPER
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE BASIN FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE AGAIN DEVELOPED INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. E
SURFACE WINDS ARE SHIFTING THE SHOWERS INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
AND THE MONA PASSAGE. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT E-NE MAINTAINING
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WINDS OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE TONIGHT AND
AGAIN TUE NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
INCREASING AND IS ALREADY PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE AREA WITH A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N60W TO 29N69W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE NW ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH ABOUT 750 NM NE OF
BERMUDA AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO OVER THE SE CONUS. A
LINGERING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N61W ALONG 25N64W TO 21N64W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 25N. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONT TO 30W. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 24N E OF 30W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N19W TO
29N24W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 29N28W. THE W ATLC FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT W TO ALONG 67W
BY EARLY TUE AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN AS IT REACHES NEAR 69W EARLY
ON WED AND DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL AND SE BAHAMAS
WED NIGHT. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN WED AND WED
NIGHT THEN BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE NEAR 31N ON THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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