[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN APR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTH AMERICA AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC IS FORECAST TO GENERATE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS
WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
03N13W TO 02N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 08W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NW OVER NEW MEXICO
PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED
ON A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N98W. A
WARM FRONT STRETCHES EASTWARD TO 27N91W AND BECOMES STATIONARY
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N82W. WHILE THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IS CONTINUING TO BECOME DIFFUSE THIS
AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT PORTION IS SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT BETWEEN 89W-92W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING IS FOUND ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR
22N98W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITHIN GENTLE
TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY. MODERATE E-SE
RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE GULF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N60W SW
TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N80W. MOSTLY DRY AND
STABLE AIR ALOFT PREVAILS BASIN-WIDE RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE PERSIST AND ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY
MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...
NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING
AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM BERMUDA NEAR
32N65W W-SW TO 29N79W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM THE COLD FRONT NEAR 30N70W SW TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE
VICINITY OF 22N59W THAT SUPPORTS TWO PIECES OF ENERGY BOTH IN
THE FORM OF SURFACE TROUGHS. THE MAIN SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM 19N60W TO 29N58W AND IS PROVIDING THE MOST FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN THE AREA
FROM 19N-28N BETWEEN 55W-64W. THIS WEAK AREA OF ENERGY IS LIKELY
TO MERGE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 35N40W. WHILE PRIMARILY SAHARAN DUST REMAINS SUSPENDED
ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA PROVIDING FAIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS...A DISSIPATED COLD FRONT REMAINS ANALYZED ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 32N20W TO 29N23W TO
26N42W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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