[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 25W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN
13W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE GULF
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURE ALOFT OTHER THAN
WEAK RIDGING...SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA W-SW TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO.
GENTLE TO MODERATE S-SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOOKING AHEAD...THE RIDGE WILL HOLD UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE NEXT FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST. A BRIEF
WINDOW OF FRESH N-NE WINDS ACROSS THE NW GULF WILL FOLLOW IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT AS IT QUICKLY WEAKENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
INTO SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRETCHED UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 06N66W. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT...
HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO WEST OF
JAMAICA. WIDELY SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NORTH
OF 16N BETWEEN 58W-83W. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN TO
THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION.

...HISPANIOLA...
WHILE DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITHIN TRADE WIND FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION RESULTING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA AND THE
ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS SWATH OF MOISTURE STRETCHES FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
WESTWARD TO WEST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N80W. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITSELF ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC
REGION AND PROVIDE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N48W SW TO A BASE NEAR 27N73W. THIS TROUGHING
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N43W SW TO 26N54W WHERE IT
BEGINS TRANSITION INTO A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WESTWARD TO
25N65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 30N WITHIN
120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 30N.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED
NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N60W. FINALLY...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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