[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022302
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 7N10W TO 1N14W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 3S17W TO
1S24W TO 2S32W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4S39W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3S
BETWEEN 22W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4S
BETWEEN 37W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 36N68W WITH
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING TO E TEXAS. 10-15 KT SE FLOW IS OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GOES-R IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY SHOWS IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TEXAS COAST. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL
FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF THE
GULF EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND N FLORIDA. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND SURFACE
RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WIND
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST
OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...AND
JAMAICA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HONDURAS AND
GUATEMALA. FURTHER S... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER COSTA RICA
AND W PANAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N73W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE ISLAND AS RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FROM AN OLD SHEAR LINE PERSISTS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N56W TO 27N65W TO
27N75W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N53W TO 25N60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A
1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N33W. A
LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC FROM 5N-28N E OF 47W. OF INTEREST OVER THE THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF
20N BETWEEN 50W-70W SUPPORTING A SURFACE FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 25W-45W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM 31N41W TO 25N50W TO 24N60W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA


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