[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021015
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W TO 01S19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH 03S30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
04S38W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05S TO 03N
BETWEEN 10W AND 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED OFFSHORE OF
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N84W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE
TEXAS COAST. SE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE
GULF. LIGHTER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT IS OCCURRING
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE HIGH CENTER. THE RIDGING SUPPORTS GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING. RIDGING IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
BASIN EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THEY ARE FRESH TO
STRONG. DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS AND SUBSIDENCE IS
INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING.
PATCHES OF SHALLOW SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 15N AND 20N...INCLUDING JAMAICA AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE TRADE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA.
OTHERWISE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BASIN
THROUGH FRIDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE ISLAND AS A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NW OF HAITI IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N64W TO
29N80W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
OVER NE FLORIDA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70 NM S OF
THE COLD FRONT. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
32N43W TO 25N60W TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 70 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF
THIS FRONT. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 26N43W TO 20N44W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE TROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FROM 05N TO 32N. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST TO NEAR 30N60W BY FRIDAY WITH CONVECTION. THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO

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