[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
01S23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE S AMERICA
COAST NEAR 05S37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S TO
04N BETWEEN 10W AND 22W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
04S TO 05N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE GULF BASIN WITH
CIRRUS STREAMING W TO E OVER THE GULF IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
AT THE SURFACE...A WESTERN EXTENSION OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
IS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AS A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N84W.
THIS IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GULF PRIMARILY
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT...WITH LIGHTER FLOW NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND THE SURFACE
HIGH IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN TONIGHT. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND OVER THE GULF A SHORT
DISTANCE TO 22N90W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. THE
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE GULF THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THAT TIME...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE NW GULF LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLC TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT THEN EXTENDS SW TO
HISPANIOLA. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FORM
THE FRONT EXTEND INTO A SMALL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN FROM 17N
TO 20N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W...INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. OTHER PATCHES OF SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW
ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN BETWEEN 14N AND 18N. TRADE
WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR AN AREA OF WINDS NEAR 25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA.
VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...EXTENDING FROM 26N50W TO 18N73W. THIS FRONT CONTINUES
TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY
DISSIPATES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION
NEAR 32N42W TO 26N50W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT
TO 22N65W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 26N66W IS
ENHANCING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 55W AND 62W. SURFACE
RIDGING SURROUNDS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A 1021 HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 28N60W...AND ANOTHER 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N49W. THE
WESTERNMOST HIGH IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N19W TO 7N28W. NO CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 CONVECTION OVER THE SE
US ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE THE MID ATLC MAY
ENTER THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION OFF THE N
FL COAST. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA OF
DISCUSSION WILL DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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