[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 35W FROM 8N-
18N MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS LOCATED BENEATH THE W SIDE
OF AN UPPER RIDGE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 33W-39W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 21N79W TO 10N80W
MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE W
CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE
IS BENEATH THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 76W-81W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND E CUBA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 12N20W TO 8N22W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N26W 7N41W 7N48W TO 9N53W. CLUSTERS
OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN
11W-16W...FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 22W-35W...AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN
40W-48W. A NEAR-STATIONARY 1012 MB LOW IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 15N45W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 43W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO NEAR SE LOUISIANA WITH A PAIR OF UPPER
RIDGES TO THE E AND W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA FROM JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE INTO THE
GULF NEAR 29N83W 29N90W TO A WEAKENING 1011 MB LOW OFF THE COAST
OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N E OF 90W TO INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS
INCLUDING FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 84W-94W. A SECOND SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG THE N COAST OF THE
YUCATAN TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N ACROSS THE ENTIRE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. A SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT NEAR SE
LOUISIANA TONIGHT WHILE THE CURRENTLY LOW DISSIPATES. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA BY TUE NIGHT. THE N PORTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 24N MON
THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA THEN
SW TO NICARAGUA ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 9N ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO PANAMA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS
TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN
THROUGH MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING W OF THE AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY THE HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE ISLAND
WHILE SKIES REMAIN OVERCAST OVER THE ISLAND. THE UPPER TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA THEN SW INTO THE
CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E GIVING THE ISLAND MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL DECREASE SHOWERS MON THROUGH MID
WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE W ATLC W OF 73W WITH A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING
THE REGION NEAR 32N80W TO ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE
CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR BERMUDA AND A
1013 MB SURFACE LOW W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N66W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 62W-65W AND N OF
30N BETWEEN 60W-65W INCLUDING BERMUDA. THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND IS ALSO
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 60W-77W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N31W TO 18N40W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG LINE FROM 26N35W TO 29N30W. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF
60W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE
FRONT WILL MEANDER N OF 30N THROUGH TUE WHEN THE FORECASTED LOW
ALONG THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE ATLC N OF THE AREA AND SENDS A
COLD FRONT OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST REACHING FROM 31N78W TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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