[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 250545 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
23N31W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 19N32W TO 14N32W...MOVING W AT 10
KT. BOTH THE METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY AND THE SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT
WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N54W TO 13N57W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR PREVAILS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS
WAVE WHICH COMBINED WITH A DRY AIRMASS AT LOW LEVELS IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION. AHEAD OF THE WAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 23N59W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 53W-62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM
W OF THE AXIS S OF 15N...AFFECTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ADJACENT
WATERS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CUBA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
22N78W TO 10N78W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. MODERATE TO HIGH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. DESPITE
THIS...ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO THIS
FEATURE MAINLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 73W-78W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND EXTENDING
TO THE PACIFIC WATERS. SEE THE PACIFIC TROPICAL DISCUSSION FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO
15N23W TO 10N35W TO 11N38W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N38W INTO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 14N44W TO
12N51W TO 13N56W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N
BETWEEN 25W-32W AND FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 42W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 35N77W IN THE ATLANTIC CROSSING
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N81W INTO THE GULF WATERS NEAR
26N86W. THIS TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR 29N88W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 24N96W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 20N96W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM S OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PREVAILING NEAR THE
STATIONARY FRONT MAINLY E OF 86W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...THE LOW AND FRONT ON THE WESTERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENS ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE BY FRIDAY TO SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THERE IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CUBA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 18N83W PAIRED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED
FROM 22N85W TO 17N87W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION CONTINUES S OF 10N ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE
PACIFIC. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE BASIN BY TONIGHT/FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE PROXIMITY OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER EASTERN CUBA IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION SW HAITI. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES FARTHER
WEST...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER TODAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THERE ARE TWO TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS 20N AFFECTION THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
EASTERN US INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC FROM 29N81W TO 37N75W
AND THEN N INTO THE N ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 30N72W. THESE SYSTEMS
ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES BEING TRANSPORTED TO THIS AREA. A SURFACE
TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 32N75W TO 25N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE E...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N59W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 20N-
25N BETWEEN 55W-62W. A SHEAR LINE IS LOCATED FROM 30N28W TO
28N46W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 23W-31W. SURFACE RIDGING
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN N OF 30N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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