[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 17N38W TO 08N39W. THE SIGNATURE OF THIS WAVE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND CURRENT GUIDANCE IS
FURTHER W THAN EXPECTED...THEREFORE IT WAS REPOSITIONED. SSMI
TPW SHOWS A MOIST AREA S OF 12 N ALONG THE WAVE. METEOSAT SAL
IMAGERY INDICATES SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF
THIS WAVE MAINLY N OF 13N. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF
12N BETWEEN 34W-44W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N60W TO 11N63W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. SSMI
TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOIST AREA EMBEDDED IN THIS WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-21N BETWEEN 56W-63W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N82W TO 10N82W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. DESPITE
THIS...ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTICED OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS ALONG 21N BETWEEN 81W-84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO
A 1010 MB LOW S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N25W TO 09N40W.
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N40W TO 08N51W TO 11N58W. OTHER
THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION
...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 20W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN US TO THE CENTRAL
GULF. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO.
THESE FEATURES ARE KEEPING A DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF WATERS ENHANCING CONVECTION S OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MAINLY S OF 27N. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N77W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 25N90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150
NM OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF IT. OTHER
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SE GULF UNDER THE BASE OF AN
EASTWARD SHIFTING UPPER TROUGH. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE N GULF ON TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN. SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. ASIDE FROM THESE
FEATURES...A SMALL AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING
A PATCH OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 74W-76W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE
MOVING W ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE S OF W
CUBA WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPED W OF HAITI ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXPECT SOME RAIN TO AFFECT THE SW COAST. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE ISLAND ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1010 MB LOW S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND A TROPICAL WAVE
ARE THE MAIN FEATURES ACROSS THE BASIN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION AND MONSOON/ITCZ SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC CENTERED
NEAR 32N65W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINS NEAR 26N51W ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-35N BETWEEN 45W-55W. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 999 MB LOW NEAR 40N70W
TO 28N77W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 28N77W ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE GULF WATERS NEAR 25N90W. A WARM AND QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SAME LOW TO 32N53W TO 31N45W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S AND E ALL THESE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FRONTS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE ENHANCING CONVECTION. A COLD
FRONT WILL DIP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net