[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 18/2100 UTC...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR
39.9N 41.3W OR ABOUT 591 NM WNW OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN
AZORES MOVING E AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON
FRIDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
37N-43N BETWEEN 35W-42W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N18W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 10N20W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA
FROM 4N-18N BETWEEN 10W-27W. FURTHER N...METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY
SHOWS BOTH DUST AND DRY AIR N OF 18N E OF 35W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 13W-22W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N44W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 15N45W TO
10N46W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA FROM 6N-22N BETWEEN 35W-49W. FURTHER
N...METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY SHOWS BOTH DUST AND DRY AIR N OF 22N
BETWEEN 35W-60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-
12N BETWEEN 44W-50W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 21N66W TO 10N66W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ENHANCED
AT UPPER LEVELS BY A LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N65W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 19N BETWEEN 63W-66W. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 10N20W TO 8N32W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
8N32W TO 11N42W AND CONTINUES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 10N48W TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 50W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA
NEAR 27N80W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N90W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH.
FURTHER W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW GULF
FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 90W-97W.  MOREOVER...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER W CUBA AND THE NE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS..AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER N MEXICO WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ENTIRE GULF
ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH RESIDUAL
CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORTING TRADES OF 5-15 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER NW VENEZUELA... N COLOMBIA
...THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER E
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF JAMAICA NEAR
17N83W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
GUATEMALA...HONDURAS... NICARAGUA...AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN S
OF 16N W OF 80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ADVECTS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI DUE TO
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING...AND A TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HURRICANE EDOUARD AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE MAIN FEATURES
ACROSS THE BASIN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVES
SECTIONS ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC FROM 31N71W TO S FLORIDA AT 27N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1022 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N33W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 23N65W. SCATTERED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 61W-66W...AND FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 57W-62W.
EXPECT A COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO BE OVER THE W
ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH INCREASED CONVECTION. ALSO
EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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