[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 17/1500 UTC...HURRICANE EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 36.4N
53.3W OR ABOUT 620 NM E-NE OF BERMUDA MOVING NE AT 21 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MORE RAPID WEAKENING ON
THURSDAY.  EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO LOSE HURRICANE INTENSITY ON
THURSDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 31N-40N BETWEEN
51W-59W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 17N38W...ACROSS THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 09N39W MOVING W AT 20
KT. DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS PRESENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS
WAVE...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE AXIS LIMITING
CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED COINCIDING
WITH PATCHES OF HIGH MOISTURE FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 35W-39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS AT ABOUT 200 NM E-NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N57W TO 12N58W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20
KT. MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 23N55W TO 15N58W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
10N19W TO 13N29W TO 10N44W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N44W
TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 09N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-14N E OF 22W AND IN THE VICINITY
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 07N-12N
BETWEEN 36W-44W

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS OVER NE MEXICO AND EXTENDING TO THE
GULF WATERS WITH CENTER NEAR 27N104W. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ALOFT IS GENERATING A NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. AT THE
SURFACE...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING S ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG 27N BETWEEN 83W-
94W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 24N97W TO 20N95W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT
FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 93W-96W. ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF...FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS AS A SURFACE 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF WITH CENTER NEAR 26N89W.  OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE S CONUS WILL MOVE S
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR
17N82W. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE VENEZUELA COAST NEAR
09N64W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS EVIDENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS
ENHANCING CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 09N-16N BETWEEN 78W-83W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE
MONA PASSAGE RELATED TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. A RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TRADES OF 10-15 KT ACROSS
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED
NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE RELATED TO AN UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT. RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MAINLY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH CENTER NEAR 26N69W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PREVAILING
ACROSS THIS AREA ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
18N-26N BETWEEN 65W-69W. A SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 32N77W
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TO ANOTHER
LOW NEAR 42N54W. THESE FEATURES ARE ENHANCING INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ASIDE FROM THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED IN
THE WAVES SECTION...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA


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