[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 20.7N 46.2W AT 13/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 970 NM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING
NW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 37W-50W.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N29W TO 19N25W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AND REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N28W. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING N OF 07N BETWEEN 25W-36W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 28W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N75W TO 22N74W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE IS BEGINNING TO TRAVEL THROUGH AN AREA OF BROAD 700
MB TROUGHING ALOFT THAT WILL LIKELY STRETCH AND FRACTURE ENERGY
NORTHWARD AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
ANY REMAINING ENERGY WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH 700 MB TROUGHING
CURRENTLY OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO
17N21W TO 05N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N
BETWEEN 12W-16W...AND FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 22W-24W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 33W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W THAT IS PROVIDING THE NORTHERN GULF N OF
26N WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A RELATIVELY DRIER
ATMOSPHERE THAN THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS MORNING. WITH A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA W-SW TO EASTERN COASTAL
TEXAS...MOST OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE BASIN IS S
OF 26N W OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FOCUSED AROUND
A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N96W AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS N-NW TO 26N98W AND S-SE TO 18N95W. THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W-NW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
DISSIPATE INLAND ACROSS NE MEXICO. THE OTHER AREA OF ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN SURROUNDS A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE
SE GULF WATERS NEAR 26N84W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD
FROM THE LOW ALONG 84W TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N. THE
LOW AND TROUGHING CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 83W-87W. CONVECTION IS
ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS E OF 81W AND INTO THE SW
NORTH ATLC REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NE OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N66W THAT INFLUENCES A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH NORTHEASTERN FLOW ALOFT W OF 68W AND
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW E OF 68W ON THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING. WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING...
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THIS
IS PRIMARILY WHERE MUCH OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS OCCURRING THIS
MORNING. MAXIMUM MID-LEVEL LIFT...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 16N
BETWEEN 76W-84W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...CUBA...AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 75W IS ALSO ENHANCING
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE ACTIVE CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY
DRY AIR ALOFT IS PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S
OF 15N BETWEEN 78W-84W IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED WEST OF THE ISLAND AND
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS MORNING. HISPANIOLA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WITHIN NE FLOW ALOFT AND AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER DRIER CONDITIONS ARE NOTED TO THE
WEST AND THIS STABILITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND
THROUGH MONDAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NEAR 23N66W. ACTIVE WITHIN THE RIDGING ALOFT...MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED S OF 28N W OF 68W...AND IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 29N69W. MUCH OF THE
TROUGHING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 29N BETWEEN 74W-81W.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM
30N65W TO 29N70W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM
22N-32N BETWEEN 66W-71W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS
EXTENDING ALONG 32N FROM A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N55W TO
A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N71W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N36W CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR WEATHER FOR THE EASTERN ATLC. ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM
EDOUARD IS LOCATED GENERALLY N OF 15N BETWEEN 40W-50W MOVING NW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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