[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD AT 12/1500 UTC IS NEAR
18.5N 43.0W. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR
300 DEGREES...AT 14 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM EDOUARD ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM
EDOUARD ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCMAT1. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 25N BETWEEN 35W AND 46W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 5N25W TO 15N24W...THROUGH A 1011 MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N25W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED AROUND THE LOW WITH NUMEROUS
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 24W-
27W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N
BETWEEN 24W-29W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N70W TO 20N70W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100NM OF THE WAVE
AXIS BETWEEN 11N AND 18N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N16W TO 11N25W TO 11N33W. THE
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N45W TO 07N59W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 47W
AND 59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH OF
THE LOW TO NEAR 25N95W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 91W AND 98W. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OCCURRING IN THE W GULF BETWEEN AN
UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO NEAR 22N99W AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
NEAR 32N89W. THIS DIFFLUENCE IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND IS ALSO
INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE NW GULF TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TX/LA COASTLINES AND OFFSHORE
WATERS.

A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W IS
MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S
AND CENTRAL FL...THE FL STRAITS...AND THE SE GULF FROM 23N-27N
BETWEEN 79W-84W.

OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE LOW OVER S FLORIDA WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF WHICH WILL BRING WITH IT ENHANCED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE/SW GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS PART OF THE
BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
22N65W...PRODUCING CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND 20 TO 30 KT OF
SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. OTHER THAN CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION...A SMALL AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN JAMAICA
AND CUBA IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE NEARBY MONSOON
TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 75W-83W. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THERE.

...HISPANIOLA...
CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA FROM A BROAD UPPER
LOW CENTERED NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 22N65W. A WESTWARD
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION IS
BRINGING WITH IT ENHANCED LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TODAY. DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAY BRING FAIR WEATHER TO HISPANIOLA BY
SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N65W DRIFTING WESTWARD. A
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THIS UPPER LOW FROM 26N69W TO
31N66W IS ALSO DRIFTING WEST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 23N-31N BETWEEN
63W-69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 73W-80W ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD
MOVING SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER S FL NEAR 27N81W. FOR
INFORMATION REGARDING TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION OF THE
DISCUSSION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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