[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 120604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD AT 12/0300 UTC IS NEAR
17.3N 39.4W. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR
300 DEGREES...11 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD
ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT1. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 16N
TO 20N BETWEEN 38W AND 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 23N BETWEEN 34W AND 44W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 22W AND 25W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND
25W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS...BETWEEN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF AN ALREADY-EXISTING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 22N64W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA ALONG 64W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 66W.

A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N94W
19N96W...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 14N TO 21N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W...IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN ALREADY-EXISTING
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 22N97W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W...TO 15N20W 10N25W AND 12N35W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 13N42W 9N50W...TO COASTAL GUYANA NEAR 8N59W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12N TO 13N
BETWEEN 35W AND 36W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
8N TO 13N BETWEEN 28W AND 31W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 39W
AND 53W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 53W
AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST/IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST...CURVING
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO A 22N97W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST...BEYOND THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. A SEPARATE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N87W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF
28N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 28N. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N72W...ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...TO 28N95W...ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...AND BEYOND
NORTHERN MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...
KVAF...AND AT KDLP DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED...IN BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS...AND IN GULF SHORES ALABAMA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE 6-HOUR FORECAST OF SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 90W
AND 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A RIDGE RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
CENTRAL AMERICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG THAT
WAS COVERING CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA AT 11/2115
UTC...HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. NUMEROUS STRONG REMAINS FROM
BELIZE TO NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...NOW IS IN ALONG
THE NORTHERN COASTAL SHORES OF JAMAICA AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OF HAITI...ALONG ITS SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N FROM 75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND
WESTERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN CLUSTERS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF
14N83W AT THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...TO 12N74W ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED STRONG IN PANAMA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 80W
AND 84W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W. A SECOND
AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF THE 24-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...
AFFECTING THE WESTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT
ARE NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 31N73W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 26N79W... TO
24N80W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N79W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. T IS LIKELY
THAT STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM TODAY...WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BECOME
A LITTLE BIT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
DURING THE WEEKEND WHILE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO SECTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH TODAY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 9 FEET FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. A SECOND AREA OF
CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF 85W...
INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
FROM A 33N55W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A
22N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA ALONG 64W. A RIDGE RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
CENTRAL AMERICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG THAT
WAS COVERING CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA AT 11/2115
UTC...HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. NUMEROUS STRONG REMAINS FROM
BELIZE TO NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...NOW IS IN ALONG
THE NORTHERN COASTAL SHORES OF JAMAICA AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
COASTAL WATERS OF HAITI. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM PUERTO RICO NORTHWARD TO 32N BETWEEN
50W AND 70W. NUMEROUS STRONG REMAINS FROM BELIZE TO NORTHWESTERN
GUATEMALA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS
MODEL FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
FOR THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N36W. EXPECT
NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET
FROM 15N TO 21N TO THE EAST OF 37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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