[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 110604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14.5N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 27W AND
31W...AND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 34W AND 37W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 38W AND 47W.
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THE TROUGH AND LOW CENTER ARE MOVING THROUGH AN
AREA THAT IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
CHANCE OF THIS FEATURE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N55W 15N57W 9N58W...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 53W AND 61W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W/91W FROM 24N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND BEYOND THE
WESTERN HALF OF GUATEMALA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20
KNOTS. THE WAVE HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND TPW IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT STARTS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THAT REACHES
A 21N94W GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...IS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN GUATEMALA
AND IN WESTERN NICARAGUA...AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 28N SOUTHWARD FROM 96W EASTWARD.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W...TO 9N17W 14N25W...TO THE
1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER/SPECIAL FEATURE. THE MONSOON TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE
35W/36W TROPICAL WAVE...TO 12N39W AND 9N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N43W TO 7N48W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF SURINAME.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 13N
BETWEEN 17W AND 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 5N TO 17N BETWEEN 13W AND 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W/91W FROM 24N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND BEYOND THE
WESTERN HALF OF GUATEMALA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20
KNOTS. THE WAVE HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND TPW IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT STARTS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THAT REACHES
A 21N94W GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...IS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN GUATEMALA
AND IN WESTERN NICARAGUA...AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 28N SOUTHWARD FROM 96W EASTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 31N79W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...
KMDJ AND KDLP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI DURING
THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W/91W FROM 24N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND BEYOND THE
WESTERN HALF OF GUATEMALA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20
KNOTS. THE WAVE HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND TPW IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT STARTS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THAT REACHES
A 21N94W GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...IS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN GUATEMALA
AND IN WESTERN NICARAGUA...AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 28N SOUTHWARD FROM 96W EASTWARD. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 82W WESTWARD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND
WESTERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N SOUTHWARD FROM 76W WESTWARD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W. EXPECT
ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET
ELSEWHERE FROM 10.5N TO 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 81W. A SECOND AREA
OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF THE 6-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF 85W.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...AND
FLORIDA...AFFECTING THE WESTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN THAT ARE NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...AND THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOUT 120 NM TO THE EAST
OF FLORIDA...MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 26N TO
29N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THE ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH THIS
FEATURE MOVING IS FORECAST TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD FLORIDA
SLOWLY. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER
TODAY IF IT BECOMES NECESSARY. THE LOW AND TROUGH FEATURE WILL
BRING HEAVY RAINS TO SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N59W...TO
27N62W...TO A 22N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE 22N64W CYCLONIC
CENTER TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 31N64W TO 29N67W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 48W AND 70W. ISOLATED
MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL AND
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND BROKEN
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS
MODEL FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N59W...TO
27N62W...TO A 22N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE 22N64W CYCLONIC
CENTER TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 31N64W TO 29N67W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 48W AND 70W. ISOLATED
MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 32N/33N
BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 24N
NORTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
FOR THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14.5N35W.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO
10 FEET FROM 15N TO 21N TO THE EAST OF 37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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