[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101205
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 16N31W 14N34W 12N35W 9N38W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 21N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 20N TO 24N
BETWEEN 48W AND 53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM
24N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THROUGH
BELIZE...WESTERN HONDURAS AND BEYOND EL SALVADOR...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20
KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE 24N79W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH...TOWARD THE AREA OF A GULF OF
MEXICO 22N90W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN MEXICO
IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 25N SOUTHWARD FROM 87W WESTWARD.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SENEGAL NEAR 16N16W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 29W/30W
TROPICAL WAVE...TO 9N34W TO 8N41W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N41W
TO 7N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO
13N BETWEEN 24W AND 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 3N TO 10N FROM 27W EASTWARD. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N FROM 30W WESTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM
24N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THROUGH
BELIZE...WESTERN HONDURAS AND BEYOND EL SALVADOR...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20
KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE 24N79W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH...TOWARD THE AREA OF A GULF OF
MEXICO 22N90W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN MEXICO
IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 25N SOUTHWARD FROM 87W WESTWARD.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF 29N85W 25N90W 23N92W 20N90W...AROUND THE 22N89W CYCLONIC
CENTER.

A WEAK AND COMPARATIVELY FLAT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS
ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...
KBBF AND KIKT.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

BILOXI MISSISSIPPI IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING. THE
VISIBILITIES AT PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI HAVE REACHED 2 MILES OR
LESS WITH FOG A FEW TIMES DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. RAIN IS
BEING REPORTED IN THE AREA OF MARY ESTHER...VALPARAISO...
DESTIN...APALACHICOLA...AND IN KEY WEST. THE VISIBILITY IS ONE
MILE OR LESS WITH FOG IN PERRY FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM
24N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THROUGH
BELIZE...WESTERN HONDURAS AND BEYOND EL SALVADOR...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20
KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE 24N79W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH...TOWARD THE AREA OF A GULF OF
MEXICO 22N90W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN MEXICO
IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 25N SOUTHWARD FROM 87W WESTWARD.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF 29N85W 25N90W 23N92W 20N90W...AROUND THE 22N89W CYCLONIC
CENTER.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 3N
TO 10N IN COLOMBIA AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL
WATERS OF COLOMBIA...BETWEEN 73W AND 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. A SECOND
AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF THE 24-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM
17N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 84W.

...A 24N79W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT AFFECTS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 24N79W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND...THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...
AND CUBA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 84W EASTWARD...
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 70W
WESTWARD...AND FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 84W EASTWARD.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W...SOME OF IT JUST TO THE
WEST OF JAMAICA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 65W WESTWARD. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 27N
SOUTHWARD FROM 87W EASTWARD.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS
MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...RELATED TO A RIDGE.
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH...DURING THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N58W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 32N BETWEEN 43W AND 70W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N57W 28N58W 26N60W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES/LESSER
ANTILLES BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...TO 27N26W...TO 28N40W. THE SOUTHERNMOST END OF A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N12W TO 31N14W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 40W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
FOR THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET
FROM 13N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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