[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N27W TO 10N28W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A
1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N28W. HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUES IN THE VICINITY OF THESE FEATURES
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N-18N BETWEEN
25W-35W. VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THE
ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY...WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL ROTATION ON RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE CHANCE OF THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N48W TO 10N49W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THIS WAVE IS ENTERING A REGION OF HIGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N85W TO 10N86W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
12N-23N BETWEEN 84W-87W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N16W TO 14N28W TO 07N40W. THE
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N40W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR
07N59W. THE ONLY CONVECTION PRESENT ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES IS
RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR
MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE NE PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS FROM
25N-29N BETWEEN 83W-88W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT N OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 23N-24N BETWEEN 81W-86W. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN US EXTENDS TO THE E
GULF. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CUBA EXTENDS TO THE SE
GULF. THESE FEATURES ARE KEEPING A DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN...AND HENCE SUPPORTING CONVECTION.
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE E GULF AS AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH ACROSS MEXICO/TEXAS
BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA...KEEPING A DIFFLUENT PATTERN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE VICINITY OF A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED 40 NM W OF WESTERN CUBA. REFER TO THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION. STRONGER CONVECTION
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS N OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
80W-83W. THIS CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE DIFFLUENCE
GENERATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CUBA WITH
CENTER NEAR 21N78W. ASIDE FROM THAT...AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA IS MOVING SW AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
MAINLY S OF 23N...BETWEEN 73W-83W. IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE
TROPICAL WAVE W OF CUBA WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND
MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
WHICH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN ENHANCED CONVECTION OFF THE COASTS
OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. ON THE CONTRARY...EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WEATHER WILL REMAIN FAIR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE ISLAND AND ANOTHER CLUSTER REMAINS NEAR
STATIONARY ACROSS HAITI. THIS CONVECTION ACROSS HAITI IS BEING
ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CUBA. EXPECT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THIS LOW PREVAILS ACROSS CUBA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ACROSS SE BAHAMAS FROM 25N72W TO
22N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT IN THE VICINITY
OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 70W-75W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION GENERATED AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS (SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE
INFORMATION)...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG 30N. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH CENTER
NEAR 25N57W. IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY WHILE WEAKENING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA


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