[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091156
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W FROM 21N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N26W 14N28W 12N30W. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 17N21W 11N30W 6N40W. THE CHANCE OF THIS FEATURE
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS
MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N44W 17N46W 10N45W
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N40W 21N45W 16N49W
11N51W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM CUBA NEAR
22N81W TO 16N82W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA INTO WESTERN PANAMA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20
KNOTS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 22N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FLORIDA FROM 12N TO 32N BETWEEN
66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W IN EASTERN HONDURAS...AND
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W...AND FROM 23N TO 25N
BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS SURROUNDING THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE MONA PASSAGE...AND PUERTO RICO SIX
HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 28N
BETWEEN 65W AND 80W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 26W
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS PART OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...TO
9N30W AND 7N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N37W TO 7N44W AND TO
7N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 80W WESTWARD...THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 25N SOUTHWARD...AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 94W FROM
23N SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS ALONG THE MEXICO COAST
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W AT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS COVER THE AREA...IN GENERAL.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS INLAND IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 25N NORTHWARD FROM 87W WESTWARD.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 22N75W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 84W AND
86W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A BERMUDA 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER...TO 30N75W...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N91W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS
AND HAZE ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATION KGBK.

VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. A VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE
OR LESS AND FOG IS BEING REPORTED IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI. LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE MOBILE ALABAMA
METROPOLITAN AREA. VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG ARE
BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION THAT IS NEAR MILTON
FLORIDA IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND IN CRESTVIEW ALABAMA. A
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN MARIANNA AND
TALLAHASSEE IN FLORIDA. RAINSHOWERS ARE NEAR PERRY FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM CUBA NEAR
22N81W TO 16N82W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA INTO WESTERN PANAMA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20
KNOTS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 22N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FLORIDA FROM 12N TO 32N BETWEEN
66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W IN EASTERN HONDURAS...AND
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W...AND FROM 23N TO 25N
BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS SURROUNDING THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE MONA PASSAGE...AND PUERTO RICO SIX
HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 28N
BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 80W WESTWARD...THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 25N SOUTHWARD...AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG AND BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREA...IN GENERAL.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND
WESTERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 81W AND 87W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10
FEET FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM CUBA NEAR
22N81W TO 16N82W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA INTO WESTERN PANAMA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20
KNOTS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 22N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FLORIDA FROM 12N TO 32N BETWEEN
66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W IN EASTERN HONDURAS...AND
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W...AND FROM 23N TO 25N
BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS SURROUNDING THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE MONA PASSAGE...AND PUERTO RICO SIX
HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 28N
BETWEEN 65W AND 80W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTO
DOMINGO. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING COVER PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS COVER SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE WIND FLOW
ACROSS HISPANIOLA WILL BE FIRST SOUTHERLY...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY...AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY...DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A
TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
CYCLE. THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...RELATED TO A NORTHEAST-
TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN TO CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N49W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 27N55W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 18N55W...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR TRINIDAD AND VENEZUELA. A 1017 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN
47W AND 55W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 44W AND 70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO
27N31W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N17W TO 27N27W TO 32N40W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND
40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A BERMUDA 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER...TO 30N75W...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N91W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
FOR THE 24-HOUR FORECAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET
FROM 13N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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