[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLC. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 15N22W TO THE LOW CENTER
NEAR 10N22W TO 5N22W. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN
SSMI TPW IMAGERY AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 15N THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE
LOW...TO 9N BETWEEN 21W AND 25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN
5N AND 9N BETWEEN 19W AND 27W. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITHIN
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
20N40W TO 10N40W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOWS ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 40W-45W WHERE
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 21N76W TO 9N77W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. AN UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE. DIFFLUENCE
SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S
OF 19N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS S MEXICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 22N95W TO 12N97W IN THE E PACIFIC MOVING WESTWARD AT 20-25
KT. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE WAVE. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 23N AND W OF 94W. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS OCCURRING IN THE E PACIFIC. DETAILS
REGARDING THIS CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND IN THE PACIFIC TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION MIATWDEP.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N17W ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST
AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N30W TO 7N38W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N38W TO 7N45W TO THE SOUTH
AMERICAN COAST NEAR 6N54W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION RELATED TO
TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED ABOVE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
BETWEEN 5N AND 8N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF
FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NEAR 30N96W TO THE TX COAST NEAR 28N97W.
DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...IS LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING E OF 88W ALONG THE TROUGH
AXIS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
OVER S MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS IS
COMBINING WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 83W
AND 85W. CONVECTION IN THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW GULF
WILL MOVE INTO MEXICO. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK RIDGE ALONG 27N WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY N REACHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS LATE
IN THE WEEK. MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS UNDER 10 KT ARE OCCURRING
ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM AN UPPER LOW
IN THE BAHAMAS WITH CYLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND W CARIBBEAN. OTHER THAN CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA POSSIBLY BEING ENHANCED BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE W CARIBBEAN AND WILL BRING ENHANCED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN THEN WILL CROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE EVENING AND NIGHT. MAINLY
EASTERLY SURFACE TRADE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PRODUCED BY A NEARBY UPPER LOW OVER THE
BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS REGION OF DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH MAY HELP TO ENHANCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA. SOME DRIER
AIR NOTED IN SSMI TPW MAY BEGIN TO WORKS ITS WAY WEST IN THE
AREA BEYOND 24 HOURS WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTION BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 26N BETWEEN 65W-76W. A BROAD
MIDDLE TO UPPER LOW SUPPORTS A 1017 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 27N55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS
OCCURRING FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 51W AND 57W. A COLD FRONT OVER E
ATLC IS LOCATED ALONG 31N BETWEEN 24W AND 36W AND EXTENDS FROM A
SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 37N22W. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK AND NARROW SURFACE RIDGE
 THROUGH THE W ATLC ACROSS BERMUDA TO ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO AND WILL MEANDER FROM BERMUDA TO PORT
CANAVERAL FLORIDA THROUGH MID WEEK. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION ABOVE FOR OTHER FEATURES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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