[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N32W TO THE LOW
NEAR 15N31W TO 12N29W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WHICH IS SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 31W-34W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH A
TILTED AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N58W SW TO 11N65W...MOVING W AT 20
TO 25 KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE...WHICH ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 13N BETWEEN 53W-68W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 22N78W TO 9N80W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF
18N WEST OF 75W. IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE...AN UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 16N
WEST OF THE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. ITS AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 22N90W TO 11N93W
AND IS MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF AND AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM
19N-24N BETWEEN 83W-92W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 15N31W TO 8N35W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N35W TO 7N43W TO 8N50W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH A LINE OF TSTMS IS FROM 5N-
13N E OF 19W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 43W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE
WESTERN GULF SUPPORTING IN PART A TROPICAL WAVE THAT ENTERED THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLIER THIS EVENING. FARTHER EAST...THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT ALONG
WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE REGION SUPPORT SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 24N E OF 93W. A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHERN-CENTRAL FLORIDA SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
30N82W TO 29N84W TO 28N85W WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WEST OF ITS AXIS. FARTHER SOUTH...A MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED ON THE STRAITS GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT
SUPPORT SIMILAR CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 28N90W. WEAK ANTICYCLONIC WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT
ACCOMPANY THE RIDGING THAT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE ON THE REGION...ONE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN. SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AN ELONGATED
MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW IS OVER HISPANIOLA WHILE A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT DOMINATES IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS ALONG DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND TSTMS EXTENDING TO COASTAL WATERS. TRADES OF 15 KT ABOUNDS
ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA WHERE 20 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN BEYOND SUNDAY AS THE
WAVE ON THE WESTERN BASIN MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THE SECOND WAVE DRIFTS TO THE CENTRAL BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW IS OVER HISPANIOLA WHILE A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT DOMINATES IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS ALONG DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS EXTENDING TO COASTAL WATERS. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED ON THE STRAITS GENERATES A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH A LOW ANCHORED ON NORTHERN
FLORIDA...WHICH SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA EXTENDING WITHIN 80 NM OFFSHORE. AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW DOMINATES OVER THE SW N ATLC WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 26N BETWEEN 66W-73W. FARTHER
EAST...THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT STARTS TO DISSIPATE FROM 30N50W
SW TO 28N57W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N44W
SW TO 27N50W ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 50 NM
OF ITS AXIS. EAST OF THE TROUGH...A 1016 MB LOW IS NEAR 29N40W
WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A PAIR OF 1018 MB HIGHS ARE FARTHER
EAST...ONE ANCHORED NEAR 23N38W AND ANOTHER NEAR 28N32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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