[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORMED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 2100
UTC. THE LOCATION OF THE DEPRESSION CENTER IS NEAR 20.1N
93.6W...HOLDING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KT AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 24N IN THE SW
GULF AND EXTEND INLAND INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 17N24W TO 6N26W...MOVING WEST AT 5-10 KT. ENHANCED METEOSAT
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SOME DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IN THE
WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 25W-31W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N42W TO 10N47W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. ENHANCED
METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SOME DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST
IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE AXIS S OF 14N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N59W TO 9N59W...MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN ITS SOUTHERN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM
9N-14N BETWEEN 54W-63W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 20N70W TO 11N70W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR IS INHIBITING DEEP
CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N23W TO 6N34W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N34W
TO 10N47W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. FOR
CONVECTION INFORMATION SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORMED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NE GULF TO SUPPORT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 30N87W TO 28N82W AND A
LINE FROM 29N90W TO 23N83W. OTHERWISE...EXCEPT FOR THE SW
GULF...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT
PREVAILS. RAINSHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN SPECIAL
FEATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE W-SW GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITHIN THAT PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN. A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS AS WELL AS HAITI AND
COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN
THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 10-15 KT
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL
BE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS
MAINLY TO THE SE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...

A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IN HAITI AND
COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
ISLAND...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN THIS
REGION OF THE CARIBBEAN IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED
NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS SOUTH OF 28N WEST OF 73W. FARTHER EAST...A TROUGH ALOFT
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 29N48W TO 25N51W. SURFACE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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