[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 310605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE 42-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CONSISTS OF A COLD
FRONT FROM 31N77W TO 26N80W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE SOUTHWEST WIND
CONDITIONS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 16 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N75W BETWEEN HAITI AND
JAMAICA...14N76W...TO 10N76W AT THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE WAVE
IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN CLUSTERS IN THE GULF OF URABA
OF COLOMBIA...IN LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN
COLOMBIA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 11N73W...AND IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF COLOMBIA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 12N74W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ALONG 70W ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 9N13W...TO 7N17W AND 7N28W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
7N28W TO 8N45W 10N53W...TO THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF GUYANA
AND VENEZUELA NEAR 8N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
32W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N52W 12N55W 8N55W.
THIS TROUGH SHOWS UP WELL IN THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN
CLUSTERS FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 49W AND 58W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A....TO THE FLORIDA...AND FROM NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N78W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO
24N92W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG
28N81W IN FLORIDA...TO 26N82W AND 23N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY IN MOST PLACES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR THAT
PART THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N83W 24N90W 22N96W 19N96W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 29N83W 26N90W 26N97W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER...TO
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...TOWARD THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 21N94W...INTO THE CENTRAL ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 23N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 90W AND MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KOPM AND KGVX.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED.

...FROM THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS BETWEEN 60W AND
THE U.S.A...INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N66W...TO 19N64W...TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF VENEZUELA. ONE SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM
30N70W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N73W TO
23N73W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 65W AND
73W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 64W/65W FROM 17N IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 26N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 21N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 21N TO 24N
BETWEEN 59W AND 62W...WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 26N57W...AND IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 62W AND
65W.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM A
RIDGE...COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 70W AND YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERCA. A RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE 19N75W
10N76W TROPICAL WAVE.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.16 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 8N78W IN
PANAMA...ACROSS THE REST OF PANAMA...AND BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W...ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 81W AND 84W...IN COLOMBIA AND ITS COASTAL
WATERS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA...AND IN
COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 73W AND 74W.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB...FOR 500 MB...AND FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 27N27W AND
24N34W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 16N38W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO
10N44W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO
22N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 39W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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