[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N72W TO 12N73W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES AROUND THIS WAVE BUT ALSO AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR WHICH IS LIMITING
CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W AND CONTINUES TO 08N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 08N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 11N28W TO 10N40W TO 09N47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-12N BETWEEN 13W-21W
AND ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN US IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM
27N97W TO 29N83W. ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE GULF IS
EXPERIENCING CONVECTION RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS
MOMENT...WHICH IS ALONG 28N BETWEEN 84W-86W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING...WITH AXIS
FROM 28N85W TO 24N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
80 NM FROM EITHER SIDE OF THIS AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
GENERATING CONVECTION...THIS TIME IT IS ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THIS AXIS IS LOCATED FROM 23N94W TO 18N94W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 91W-95W. WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FROM THE N-NE AT 10-15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE AND WITH
HIGHER SPEEDS NEAR CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH
TONIGHT AND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HANNA...WHICH CONTINUES
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WEAKENING RAPIDLY. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION
W OF 80W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO PRESENT N OF COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA...WHICH ALONG WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE...IS ENHANCING CONVECTION S OF 13N. E-NE FLOW AT 10-15
KT AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE S OF HISPANIOLA (FOR
MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE). THIS IS DUE
TO A MODERATE DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A 1009 MB LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED AT AROUND 120 NM NE OF FAJARDO...PUERTO
RICO...IS BRINGING ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENHANCING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENT GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN WATERS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHORT-WAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N71W TO 23N73W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-34N BETWEEN 66W-73W. TO THE E...A 1009 MB
SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED AT AROUND 120 NM NE OF FAJARDO...PUERTO
RICO...WITH CENTER NEAR 20N64W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THIS LOW TO 24N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS E OF
THESE FEATURES FROM 17N-30N BETWEEN 64W-56W. AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE E ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS FROM 27N58W TO 32N28W INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ONLY PRESENT ALONG THE WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONT PORTION WHICH IS LOCATED FROM 28N58W TO 25N47W.
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA

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