[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 300005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N69W 11N70W. THE WAVE
IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE IN SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW FROM
14N TO 16N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 8N20W AND 7N27W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N27W TO 8N43W 10N49W AND 9N57W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO
9N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO
11N BETWEEN 17W AND 27W.

ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 5N TO 12N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NEARBY ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 11N
BETWEEN 37W AND 53W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 49W FROM
5N TO 12N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A
30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 9.5N 47W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO IS PRESENT...FROM THE 15N40W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A....INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO
THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT CUTS THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...INTO
AND BEYOND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N84W TO 31N86W 30N92W 29N95W 29N96W 28N100W...
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS.

A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 29N86W AND
26N86W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
25N TO 30N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 23N93W 18N94W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 92W AND THE MEXICO GULF COAST.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KXIH
AND AT KVBS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NEAR 19.5N 62W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE 1010 MB LOW CENTER...ACROSS SAINT KITTS AND
NEVIS...TO 15N64W IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 18N
TO 21N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE IN THE AREA FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W...INCLUDING
MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER FROM 18N TO 31N BETWEEN 52W AND 65W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE FROM 18N TO 27N BETWEEN 52W AND 64W.

THE REMNANT 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF HANNA IS IN NORTHERN
GUATEMALA NEAR 16.5N 90W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE IN THIS AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 16N TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF GUATEMALA...COMPARATIVELY
MORE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THIS AREA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N NORTHWARD FROM 80W
WESTWARD. THE COMPARATIVELY GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 82W AND THE
COASTS OF MEXICO AND BELIZE...AND FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
INTO EASTERN GUATEMALA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 20N66W 15N67W
13N68W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN 63W AND 77W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED ALSO WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS
PART OF THE DETAILED INFORMATION IN THE SECTION FOR THE 1010 MB
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
29/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 2.90 IN
GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N75W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 8N81W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG FROM 13N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 77W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 25N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA...CUBA...
AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ACROSS THE ISLAND...AT THE
SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND IN SOUTHEASTERN JAMAICA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER LOW LEVEL CLOUDS C
ARE BEING REPORTED IN BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND A SEPARATE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE
BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA
ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A TROUGH JUST TO THE EAST. A
RIDGE EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE 48-
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START IN THE AREA THAT IS
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL START FOR 6 TO 12 HOURS...BEING REPLACED BY WESTERLY WIND
FLOW FOR 18 TO 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N70W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER FROM
20N TO 30N BETWEEN 65W AND 74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N70W
21N72W IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM
24N TO 28N BETWEEN 62W AND 72W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO
29N41W AND 27N44W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N36W TO 28N43W AND 26N51W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 26N51W TO 26N63W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N35W TO 28N40W 27N50W 27N63W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 15N40W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 24N BETWEEN 30W AND 52W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW.

A WEAKENING 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N21W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N25W...TO A 1015 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N33W...TO 20N46W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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