[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231059
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 22W
AND 28W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W FROM 14N SOUTHWARD.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO
11N BETWEEN 36W AND 38W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
12N61W...TO 7N62W IN EASTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 9N TO 17N BETWEEN 58W
AND 62W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 10N16W AND 9N19W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N19W TO 8N25W 6N34W 6N40W AND 4N45W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO 12N
BETWEEN 28W AND 33W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 14N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
20W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
ALONG THE U.S.A EAST COAST NEAR 40N72W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THAT CYCLONIC CENTER THROUGH 32N73W TO 30N74W. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 29N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 63W
AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THIS PART OF THE TROUGH HAS BROKEN
AWAY FROM THE REST OF THE TROUGH WHICH STARTS IN FLORIDA. A
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH FLORIDA NEAR
30N82W...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE
AREA TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N70W 30N80W 25N86W 21N90W 21N96W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE SAME LINE. THE CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION ARE
PART OF THE RIDGE AND MOISTURE STREAM THAT ORIGINATE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N56W AND THAT REACH NORTHERN COASTAL
HONDURAS. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 28N75W...TO FLORIDA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...TO 26N86W. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS FROM 26N86W
TO 25N95W.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE MOVED INLAND IN MEXICO BETWEEN CAMPECHE
AND CIUDAD DEL CARMEN JUST AFTER 23/0000 UTC. THE DEPRESSION WAS
DECLARED TO BE A REMNANT LOW AFTER LANDFALL. THE 1004 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR 19N90.5W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 85W AND
87W OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KOPM...
KMZG...KGVX...KXIH...KEMK...KHQI...KVQT...KSPR...KIKT...
KGBK...KGRY...KMDJ...KIPN...AND KVOA.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN ST. PETERSBURG
AND NAPLES IN FLORIDA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL
AIR STATION IN KEY WEST FLORIDA.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES...THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...BEYOND HONDURAS...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 54W. A
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
26N64W...TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...BEYOND NORTHERN
COASTAL HONDURAS. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO 360
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W 27N70W
23N81W...BEYOND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 77W AND
82W...COVERING PARTS OF SOUTHERN COASTAL JAMAICA...AND FROM CUBA
SOUTHWARD. NUMEROUS STRONG ALSO IN THE AREA OF THE GULF OF
HONDURAS/BELIZE/HONDURAS...WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 16N88.5W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 25N
BETWEEN 72W AND 87W.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AWAY FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N80W...
WESTWARD THROUGH PANAMA...NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH COSTA RICA...
NICARAGUA...EL SALVADOR...AND BEYOND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N SOUTHWARD FROM 75W WESTWARD IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING ON TOP
OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. THIS WIND FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN/
SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE HONDURAS-TO-ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
STILL COVERS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BEING REPORTED AT OBSERVING SITES THAT ARE AROUND THE ISLAND.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE CURRENT
RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA. AN
ELONGATED NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE EVENTUALLY WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N50W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
17N TO 26N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 28N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N55W...TO THE 1012
MB LOW CENTER...TO 24N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N TO
30N BETWEEN 48W AND 54W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 23N
BETWEEN 40W AND 48W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 35N30W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 35N30W TO 29N28W...TO 23N31W
17N34W...AND TO 13N38W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N30W
TO 29N32W AND 25N35W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 22W AND
30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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