[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AT 22/2100 UTC IS IN THE
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19.2N 91.7W.
THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 78 NM TO THE WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING ESE AT 4 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 82W-90W.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS 185 NM S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
THAT EXTENDS FROM 12N23W TO 05N24W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION S OF 09N AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-08N
BETWEEN 24W-26W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM 13N37W TO 04N39W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS ENTERING AN AREA
OF WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
08N-12N BETWEEN 36W-41W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS 130 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
THAT EXTENDS FROM 17N57W TO 07N60W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DESPITE THIS...ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS VISIBLE ALONG 13N FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
57W-60W AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT
OF THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W AND CONTINUES TO 10N19W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVES FROM 08N27W TO 08N36W...AND STARTS AGAIN
FROM 07N41W TO 05N48W TO 09N57W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-14N BETWEEN 26W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

T.D. NINE CONTINUES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS FROM 30N93W TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N81W AND CONNECTION TO A 1002 MB LOW
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 39N70W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
PRESENT ALONG THIS FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
S FLORIDA...THE SE GULF...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL S OF 26N
BETWEEN 82W-88W. 10-15 KT NE WINDS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF N OF 25N WHILE 15-20 KT NE FLOW WITH
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR CONVECTION ARE PREVAILING S OF 25N. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST AND SPREAD E
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE SE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE PREVAILING OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE CONVECTION AFFECTING THE NW PORTION OF
THE BASIN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF 81W
BETWEEN 18N-23N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG 17N
BETWEEN 72W-81W AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF E CUBA...JAMAICA
AND S HISPANIOLA. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS E OF 71W. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 70W.  ABUNDANT UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW AND THE MONSOON
TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED ENTER THE BASIN MOVING
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ISLAND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 28N80W
AND CONNECTION TO A 1002 MB LOW NEAR 39N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM W OF 58W BETWEEN 27N-45N. TO THE E...A 1012
MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N55W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO 24N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 49W-54W. TO
THE NE OF THIS FEATURE...A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 35N31W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT E
OF 29W BETWEEN 30N-44N. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S OF THE LOW
FROM 30N29W TO 23N32W. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 34N29W ENHANCING CONVECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH
CONVECTION. CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA

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