[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 220615 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMENDED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AMENDED IN ORDER TO UPDATE THE 22/0600 UTC POSITION FOR TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE...AND FOR THE FORECAST FOR HISPANIOLA

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AT 22/0600 UTC...NEAR 19.4N 92.6W. THIS
POSITION IS ABOUT 120 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAMPECHE IN
MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING EAST OR 90 DEGREES 5 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE MEXICO
COAST TO 21N BETWEEN THE MEXICO COAST AND 93W...IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 20N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD...AND FROM 19N TO
22N BETWEEN 80W AND 89W IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... INCLUDING TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N32W 9N34W 4N35W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE ITCZ FROM 3N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 44W. THIS WAVE
WAS INTRODUCED INTO THE SURFACE ANALYSIS BASED ON SATELLITE
HOVMOLLER ANALYSIS AND UNIVERSITY OF ALBANY EASTERLY WAVE
DIAGNOSTICS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N54W 11N56W 7N57W...
MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W...AND FROM
16N TO 18N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 11N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N18W TO
7N28W 10N33W 7N45W AND 12N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN 15W AND 21W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 21W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND COVERING PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE
GULF OF HONDURAS...TO NORTHWESTERN CUBA TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
TO 28N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN
240 NM TO 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N68W 26N78W...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W... IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 76W AND 82W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTH OF 29N80W 28N90W 26N97W...FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE
DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS/THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF MEXICO.

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. A STATIONARY
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO
28N82W IN FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
COASTAL AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS/THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF MEXICO.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 32N73W...
28N85W...BEYOND 32N95W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KATP.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
PERRY FLORIDA.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA AND IT
CONTINUES HEADING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA NORTHEASTWARD...THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EVENTUALLY INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
22/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.11 IN
CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N74W ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA...TO 11N80W...ACROSS NICARAGUA INTO NORTHWESTERN
HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N SOUTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD. NUMEROUS
STRONG IN CENTRAL SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING ON TOP
OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. THIS WIND FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN/
SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS-TO-ATLANTIC OCEAN
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS DESCRIBED IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO SECTION. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MONA PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...ARE BEING REPORTED AT OBSERVING SITES THAT ARE AROUND
THE ISLAND.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE CURRENT
RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE WILL COVER
HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N53W. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N55W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 27N55W LOW CENTER TO 33N54W.  A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N51W 23N46W 18N38W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30
NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N38W 23N46W 27N49W...AND
ELSEWHERE FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 48W AND 56W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 33N29W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N
NORTHWARD...BETWEEN AFRICA AND 45W. A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 33N28W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 33N28W
LOW CENTER TO 28N30W AND 24N33W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE 1000 MB LOW CENTER. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT1/FZNT01 KWBC
FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 22W AND 31W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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