[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 18/2100 UTC...HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 39.3N
60.0W OR ABOUT ABOUT 360 NM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA AND ABOUT
540 NM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NNE AT 30 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUST TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 38N BETWEEN 58W-63W. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM 15N36W TO 05N39W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT 10 KT.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE AS DEPICTED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DECENT DEEP-LAYER WIND
SHEAR IS ALSO IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE LIMITING
CONVECTION TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 07N-16N BETWEEN 33W-
40W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 07N20W TO 08N35W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 05N41 AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 05N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
08N BETWEEN 14W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM
05N-08N BETWEEN 41W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN US. AN ELONGATED 1026
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL US IS KEEPING A WSW FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY AREA WITH CONVECTION IS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN GULF AS THE NOW T.D. TRUDY CONTINUES
SLOWLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. THERE ARE ALSO
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING W OF 93W BETWEEN 23N-27N. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND N YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE PACIFIC W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
IS PAIRING WITH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MONA PASSAGE TO
KEEP A DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE BASIN S OF 15N.
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH ALSO IN THE PROXIMITY OF THIS DIFFLUENT
FLOW...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT OVER THIS AREA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
MAINLY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING/OROGRAPHIC LIFTING THEREFORE
EXPECT FOR IT TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. 05-
15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND NEAR THE CONVECTION ALREADY
DISCUSSED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT THE CONVECTION S OF
15N TO PERSIST AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH
STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER HAITI. EXPECT AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N61W TO THE S
BAHAMAS AT 23N69W. A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 24N51W MOVING NW AT 10 KT. THIS LOW IS ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM
THIS LOW TO 19N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF
THE LOW CENTER FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 48W-54W. A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 34N20W WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM IT TO 27N36W. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM
27N36W TO 26N58W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE
FROM 30N-40N BETWEEN 15W-24W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST ON SUNDAY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL BY
MONDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA

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