[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO AT 16/0000 UTC IS NEAR 24.4N
68.7W OR ABOUT 513 NM S-SW OF BERMUDA. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB. THE MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND
SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...AND
ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER BERMUDA ON FRIDAY...WITH
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 22N
TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 71W. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE PUBLIC
ADVISORIES UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC/AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3
AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23
KNHC/AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA...INTO THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W TO 10N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 10N19W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 8N30W TO 11N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 14W AND 26W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO
11N BETWEEN 22W AND 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW FL COAST NEAR 26N82W TO NEAR
23N88W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT AND EXTENDS
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N93W. A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN GULF
SUPPORT THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE GULF WITHIN 150 NM ALONG AND SE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTS...SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY
AIR IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
LOCATED ALONG THE TX/MEXICO BORDER NEAR 26N98W. NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING 10 TO 15 KT
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN...WITH 15 TO 20 KT WINDS IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARD THE FL STRAITS AS IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY
FRONT BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN THE SE GULF AND BAY OF
CAMPECHE THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SMALL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA AT
18N75W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS UPPER LOW AND THE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER LAND OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HAITI. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N91W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND OFFSHORE
WATERS OF THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 16N TO 21N W OF 83W. DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW BASIN IN THE PRESENCE OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE AREA
FROM THE GULF.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED S OF HAITI NEAR 18N75W ALONG WITH
SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ALONG ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND AND
OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE
ISLAND.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE BASIN IS MAJOR HURRICANE GONZALO CENTERED
ABOUT 230 NM NE OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SE CONUS
COAST TO 31N79W TO THE FL COAST NEAR 28N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N30W TO 27N40W TO 24N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THIS COLD
FRONT. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 17N45W. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER IS
EAST OF THIS LOW FROM 12N TO 21N BETWEEN 35W AND 44W. A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS WEST OF THE LOW FROM 12N TO 16N
BETWEEN 47W AND 53W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT IN THE WEST ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE TO HAVE CONVECTION
INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND S BAHAMAS. THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NW WITH CONVECTION. THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT EAST WITH MAINLY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO

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