[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

FAY HAS WEAKENED FROM A HURRICANE BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM AND
IS CENTERED NEAR 34.1N 58.2W AT 13/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 350 NM ENE OF BERMUDA MOVING E AT 21 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. ADDITIONAL STEADY WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FAY IS FORECAST TO
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON MONDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 35N TO 39N BETWEEN 52W AND 58W. SEE THE LATEST
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 16.7N 60.6W AT 03/0600
UTC OR ABOUT 50 NM ENE OF GUADELOUPE AND 75 NM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TODAY...AND ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NEAR EASTERN
PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO
18N BETWEEN 57W AND 61W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 56W AND 61W. SEE THE
LATEST FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM
20N43W THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 14N44W TO 9N43W MOVING W AT 15
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW SHOWS THIS WAVE WELL WITH
HIGH MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 18N BETWEEN 34W AND 42W.
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 37W AND
41W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES TO 10N26W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
EXTENDS ALONG 10N26W TO 9N37W AND THEN FROM 13N48W TO 10N58W.
OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN
13W AND 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE NW
GULF IS PRODUCING W TO SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. A SMALL
MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SE GULF FROM 23N TO
27N BETWEEN 82W AND 87W. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF IS
PRODUCING MAINLY 10 TO 20 KT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
BASIN. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW GULF ARE REPORTING 25 KT SE
WINDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND NW
GULF WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NW
GULF. THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THIS TROUGH AND
APPROACHING FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES
WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...W CUBA...JAMAICA...AND PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N88W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS ANTICYCLONE AND THE UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN
78W AND 84W. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W WEST INTO
COSTA RICA NEAR 11N84W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM
GONZALO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH CONVECTION AND
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. GONZALO
WILL THEN MOVE WNW TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ISLAND. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ENHANCED MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST WELL REMOVED FROM GONZALO. THE MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL BRING ENHANCED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

TROPICAL STORM FAY AND GONZALO CONTINUE IN THE ATLANTIC. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
CENTERED OVER THE CIRCULATION OF GONZALO NEAR 17N58W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 25N
BETWEEN 65W TO 72W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE EASTERN
CONUS IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. 1023 MB HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED NEAR 32N32W IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE
WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER N OF 20N AND EAST OF 60W. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS GONZALO WILL MOVE WNW ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH A
LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND CONVECTION REMAINING IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS. A COLD FRONT IN THE
WAKE OF TROPICAL STORM FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC S OF 31N WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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