[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 26.4N 64.5W AT 11/0600
UTC OR ABOUT 350 NM S OF BERMUDA MOVING N-NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. THE CENTER OF FAY IS
EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N
BETWEEN 65W-69W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION E OF FAY N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-62W IS BEING SUPPORTED
BY A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT GENERATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. SEE
THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
16N31W TO 9N33W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD LOW TO MIDDLE LEVELS HIGH MOISTURE AIRMASS AND IT
COINCIDES WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE
OF ITS AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 17N60W TO 9N61W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE
IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE SHALLOW MOISTURE. WITH NO LIFTING
MECHANISM IN PLACE AND DRY AIR ALOFT...THE WAVE IS DEVOID OF
CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 85W...
MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. A MIDDLE-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH SUPPORT THE
WAVE THAT IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP LAYER MODERATE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES TO 10N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 11N31W THEN RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
12N37W AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. ASIDE THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-14N BETWEEN 22W-32W AND FROM 4N-11N
BETWEEN 35W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...THUS SUPPORTING SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR
29N84W. EXCEPT FOR A PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...DEEP LAYER
DRY AIR IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...WHICH SUPPORTS CLEAR
SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THE SW GULF ALONG WITH A PATCH OF MODERATE
MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 21N E OF 94W.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 85W.
SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF
76W...INCLUDING OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN CUBA...JAMAICA.
FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT
SIMILAR CONVECTION ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SW
HISPANIOLA. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
BASIN...HOWEVER...THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR ALONG WITH DRY AIR SUPPORT
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NE
CARIBBEAN BY MONDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY...SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
SW REGION OF THE ISLAND AS WELL AS COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER OFFSHORE WATERS OF NE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE BASIN IS SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY
DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A 1012 MB LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N53W GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 51W-58W.
SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 20N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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