[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 23N62W.
AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N65W. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING N-NW AT 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY ORGANIZE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN
61W-65W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALSO FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 57W-61W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
16N30W TO 6N31W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS
DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 26W-32W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 28N-
32N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM
18N51W TO A 1009 MB LOW AT 13N51W TO 6N51W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 46W-51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO W OF THE AXIS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN
51W-55W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
19N80W TO 10N81W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO WELL
DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-20N
BETWEEN 79W-87W...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN
79W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR
12N16W TO 9N24W TO 5N34W TO 7N41W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 7N41W
TO 9N50W. THE ITCS RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 9N53W AND
CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N60W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 20W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
30N84W. 10-15 KT E TO SE SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF WITH
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 30N94W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N99W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO ADVECT TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER E
CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA... PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO
MOVE W AND ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE TO THE E CARIBBEAN WITH
CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER NE HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE
ISLAND DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND AFTERNOON/EVENING
INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SPECIAL FEATURE IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. AT 0900 UTC...A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N70W TO
29N78W TO 31N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF THE
FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N41W.
THE TAIL END OF A FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N20W TO
25N29W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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