[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081109
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 13N
BETWEEN 18W AND 23W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N40W 11N43W 6N45W.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS POSITION IS
BASED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 32W AND
43W...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N44W 16N46W 18N48W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N63W 14N64W
10N65W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 22N57W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
MERGING WITH BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW...IN THE AREA THAT IS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
SOUTHWARD FOR ABOUT 210 NM. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W...NEAR THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
17N88W AT THE COAST OF BELIZE...ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN HONDURAS
AND WESTERN EL SALVADOR...TO 7N91W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 11N TO THE COAST OF GUATEMALA BETWEEN 90W AND
92W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR ITS BORDER WITH GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N17W...TO 10N20W 7N31W 8N40W. NO ITCZ IS APPARENT AT THIS TIME
BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER WIND FIELD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
FROM 3N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W
23N80W...ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING
THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LINE...FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM
TO 420 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...INCLUDING IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N74W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KMDJ.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG COVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS FROM FALFURRIAS TO ALICE AND THE NAVAL
AIR STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI. VICTORIA TEXAS HAS BEEN REPORTING
VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG DURING THE LAST FEW
OBSERVATIONS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN TEXAS IN THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING SMALLER COMMUNITIES.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG
ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA...
MISSISSIPPI...ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM
CROSS CITY WESTWARD. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED
IN MARATHON IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 11.5N 81.5W. THE LOW CENTER IS ABOUT 120
NM TO THE EAST OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD FROM 77W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 16N NORTHWARD...CURVING
ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS ACROSS CUBA TO
HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN A
CIRCULAR PATTERN FROM 14N80W TO 13N83W...ALONG THE COASTS OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...TO 10N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 9N84W IN
COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. NUMEROUS STRONG ALSO IS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 13N ALONG THE COASTS FROM COSTA RICA TO
NICARAGUA. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA NEAR 3N78W...
TO 7N81W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA...
WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT NOW IS IN THE MONA
PASSAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS REACHING
HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA. HIGH LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
REACHING THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. IT IS COMING FROM
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT DIFFERENT SITES ACROSS
THE ISLAND.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE
GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW...WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N57W 17N57W TO 13N59W
NEAR BARBADOS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM
16N TO 23N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 54W AND 58W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF 30N60W 24N70W 21N74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 55W AND 75W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO
28N28W 24N35W AND 24N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N13W TO 30N32W BEYOND 32N37W. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 52W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N74W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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