[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 15N17W TO 5N17W AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND COINCIDES WITH A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 3N-13N E OF 26W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 17N39W TO 7N43W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. MODERATE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS WEST OF THE AXIS WHERE ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 160 NM FROM 7N-15N. EAST OF THE
AXIS HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 7N-15N W OF 36W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N60W TO 10N62W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE NE
CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 8N13W
TO 7N23W 7N33W TO 8N40W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-
15N BETWEEN 26W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...THE
FAR W ATLC WATERS EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND BAY
OF CAMPECHE. THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS EXTENDS TO THE W GULF OF MEXICO
GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG A TONGUE OF
MODERATE MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF 88W. THE TROUGH ALOFT ALSO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N91W TO
17N94W THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S
OF 22N. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N74W
EXTENDS SW INTO THE N AND E GULF...THUS PROVIDING E-SE WIND OF 5-
10 KT N OF 22N. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH THU...HOWEVER LIFTING SUPPORTED BY THE TROUGH
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE E-SE
GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A 1009
MB LOW NEAR 11N81W. THIS LOW IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO
LOWER LEVEL CYCLONE. HIGH MOISTURE IN THIS REGION ALONG WITH A
DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT THE CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE IN THE BASIN IS A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN THE SE BASIN INHIBITS CONVECTION IN THAT
PORTION OF THE WAVE. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR
MORE DETAILS. DUST AND HAZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED
IN HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL-EASTERN CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH A SAHARAN
AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. TRADES OF 20 KT
REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 68W-
82W. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE. THE LOW IN THE SW
BASIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 20-24
HOURS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE CENTRAL BASIN BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TONIGHT OVER THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...HAZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF A DRY AND DUSTY SAHARAN AIRMASS. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THU AFTERNOON AS THE
AIRMASS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE SW N ATLC N OF 24N W OF 74W
BEING SUPPORTED BY PATCHES OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE  TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONE SUPPORT A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 21N56W FROM WHICH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 26N62W TO THE LOW TO 15N51W.
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 13N-22N
BETWEEN 48W-57W. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY
DISCUSSED...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE N OF 21N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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