[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
17N67W TO 9N68W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN
A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE S OF 15N AS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DRY AIR IS N OF 15N ALONG THE WAVE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE
VENEZUELA COAST TO 15N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N80W TO 10N80W...MOVING W AROUND 20 KT. THIS
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP MOISTURE S OF 13N AS DEPICTED ON SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED N OF 13N
ALONG THE WAVE IN THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN AIR. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND PANAMA...S OF 12N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM 13N17W TO 10N20W
TO 9N31W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM 9N31W AND EXTENDS TO 9N50W TO
9N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 31W AND 50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
23W AND 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W TO THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N88W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM
20N-26N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT E
OF 92W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 5-
10 KT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF AND
10 TO 15 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE IN THE SE GULF S OF THE
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 25N SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM N MEXICO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING OUTFLOW OVER
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH CONVECTION
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED OTHER
THAN THAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. 10-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN AREA OF 20 TO
25 KT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 15N. DRY AIR WITH
SAHARAN DUST IS EVIDENT FROM W CUBA E TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N
OF 14N ACCORDING TO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BANES CUBA TO
BARBUDA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN
POSSIBLE MAINLY S OF 14 N ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY AFFECT THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY SUNDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA IN THE PRESENCE OF DRY SAHARAN
AIR. EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FL NEAR 30N81W TO 31N81W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 31N51W TO 28N56W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS WEST
OF THIS COLD FRONT FROM 28N56W TO A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
28N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 23N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM OF BOTH THIS STATIONARY FRONT AND THIS
COLD FRONT. A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 21N59W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N39W TO 31N37W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
23N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY E OF THE UPPER
LOW FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
COLD FRONT NEAR N FL WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO S FL WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION. THE 1011 MB SURFACE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS E
ALONG WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND COLD FRONT. CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LARGE UPPER
LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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