[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 12N43W
TO 3N45W MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO
WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM
19N58W TO 10N61W MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 11N58W TO 13N63W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 14N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N23W TO 6N29W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO E OF TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N43W THEN
RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 6N46W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11-12N
BETWEEN 33W-46W AND FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 48W-53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 54W-57W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 18W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND IS ANCHORED NEAR
25N88W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE GULF NEAR TAMPA BAY CONTINUING TO 28N86W WHERE IT DISSIPATES
TO THE MISSISSIPPI COAST NEAR GULFPORT. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS TO OVER THE YUCATAN INTO THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 24N TO OVER CUBA AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 82W-86W
AND S OF 21N E OF 93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NE
EXITING THE GULF LATE TONIGHT. A STRONG EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SE OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI MORNING AND REACH FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION TO UPPER MEXICAN COAST SAT MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E ACROSS THE FAR
NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N W OF 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR DOMINICA ALONG 14N67W TO CENTRAL
AMERICA NEAR THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT
BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N TO OVER CUBA
BETWEEN 80W-86W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA BETWEEN 73W-81W. THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SE
CARIBBEAN ARE DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...SEE ABOVE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THU
REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN BY SAT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES ACROSS THE ISLAND AREA CLEARING AS THE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS DISSIPATE. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE ISLAND NE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI WHEN THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND THU EVENING THROUGH FRI INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
W OF 73W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH
32N68W TO 26N70W SUPPORTING A 1008 MB LOW W OF BERMUDA NEAR
32N66W AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 29N65W 27N67W 26N75W TO
OVER FLORIDA NEAR VERO BEACH BECOMING STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 77W-80W. AN
UPPER RIDGE IS SITUATED TO THE E OF THE ABOVE UPPER TROUGH AND W
OF SECOND UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH
32N55W TO 26N57W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-
30N BETWEEN 51W-66W...N OF 30N BETWEEN 58W-64W...AND FROM 30N-
33N BETWEEN 51W-53W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 29N44W
WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF A PAIR OF WEAK LOWS...A 1018
MB LOW NEAR 31N26W AND A 1017 MB LOW NEAR 31N29W. W ATLC THE LOW
WILL MOVE NE THROUGH FRI AND DRAG THE FRONT E-SE REACHING 31N65W
TO 28N68W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY THU AND STALL BETWEEN 27N-
28N EARLY FRI BEFORE DISSIPATING. A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
SE U.S. COAST SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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