[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011147
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 10N33W
TO 3N34W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N51W TO
9N53W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N21W 7N27W TO E OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N32W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 6N36W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N48W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
6N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 34W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND IS ANCHORED NEAR
25N90W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS FLORIDA TO A 1009 MB LOW OVER TAMPA BAY CONTINUING ALONG
27N85W 27N90W THEN DISSIPATING TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA/TEXAS
NEAR THE BORDER. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N TO
THE FRONT BETWEEN 90W-94W. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING INLAND OVER
PORTIONS OF W LOUISIANA. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS TO OVER THE YUCATAN AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N BETWEEN 91W-93W AND
WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 93W-95W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NE AND EXITS THE GULF BY THU
NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT TO ENTER THE GULF WILL BE A STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SE OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI MORNING AND WILL
EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO UPPER MEXICAN COAST FRI
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E ACROSS CUBA
THEN INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W
TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT BETWEEN THESE UPPER
FEATURES ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 79W-84W. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 13N-17N W OF 80W TO OVER NE NICARAGUA...N HONDURAS...AND IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENTS ALONG 10N FROM
COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N E OF 82W TO INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN
THU EVENING REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY FRI EVENING.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ACROSS THE ISLAND REMAIN CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE ISLAND NE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI WHEN THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT HEAVY
RAIN...BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING THROUGH EARLY FRI. TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
ISLAND EARLY SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS
CUBA INTO THE W ATLC TO NEAR 26N65W. A NARROW SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH DIPS S OVER THE NW ATLC THROUGH 32N74W TO 26N73W
SUPPORTING A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 32N72W AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
ALONG 30N73W TO 28N78W BECOMING STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N70W ALONG 29N71W TO
25N74W. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT ON THE N SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO
THE FRONT W OF 70W AND FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 65W-70W. A SECOND
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH
32N59W TO 24N60W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E ANCHORED NEAR
27N54W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM
OF LINE FROM 26N68W 27N58W TO 32N55W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 23N55W TO 28N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 22N56W TO 16N57W. THE AREA
BETWEEN THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 52W IS
EXPERIENCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 17N55W TO 21N54W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W AND IS ANCHORED WELL N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THE FRONT WILL LIE FROM 31N65W TO 28N68W TO
NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY THU AND STALL BETWEEN 27N-28N EARLY FRI
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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