[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 6N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 7N36W TO 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N E OF 25W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA AND FROM
7N-9N BETWEEN 31W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NW ATLC WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1030 MB HIGH NW OF BERMUDA ACROSS NE
FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE
MOVING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND N CUBA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES
THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MON
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH E TEXAS AND WILL STALL ALONG THE TEXAS COAST MON NIGHT
THEN LIFT N TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S TO OVER
THE N CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE N PORTION OF HISPANIOLA. LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED
WITH THE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-
19N W OF 81W AND FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 75W-78W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE.

HISPANIOLA...
THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE N COAST OF THE ISLAND W OF 70W TO THE
NW TIP OF HAITI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ISLAND IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL
FURTHER WEAKEN TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY FOR THE N
PORTION OF THE ISLAND WITH SKIES CLEARING MON AND TUE.
HOWEVER...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AFTERNOON FAST MOVING SHOWERS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA
INTO THE NW ATLC WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT N OF THE AREA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
NEAR 32N43W ALONG 27N51W TO 22N63W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO ALONG
THE THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT
E OF 63W AND WITHIN 200 NM OF W OF THE ENTIRE FRONT. A SURFACE
RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE W ATLC W OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY
A 1030 MB HIGH ABOUT 225 NM NW BERMUDA AND WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. W
ATLC FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MON EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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