[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 7N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
5N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 18W-29W...AND FROM 3N-
8N BETWEEN 32W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
NEAR 32N87W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE
WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
NORTH GULF STATES WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 24N. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE TO THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N76W.
THIS WILL PRODUCE 10-15 KT E TO SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF
WITH CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM E
CUBA AT 20N74W TO 17N80W TO S NICARAGUA AT 12N85W. JUST NW...A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N76W TO S BELIZE
AT 16N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF BOTH FRONTS. 20-
25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONTS. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF FRONTS. FURTHER
S... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 9N-
12N BETWEEN 82W-85W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 63W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL
FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE
THE FRONTS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE REINFORCING
COLD FRONT TO MERGE WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WITH
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE JUST REACHED WESTERN HAITI DUE
TO THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO DRIFT EAST OVER HAITI VERY SLOWLY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N60W
TO E CUBA AT 20N74W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS JUST NW OVER
THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N63W TO E CUBA AT 21N76W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF BOTH FRONTS. OVERCAST COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NW OF THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO THE
FLORIDA COAST. A LARGE 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N41W. A LARGE 982 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE
COAST OF PORTUGAL NEAR 37N11W PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND
20 KT NW WINDS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-31N BETWEEN 47W-52W. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONTS TO MERGE AND MOVE E OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ALSO
MOVE E WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA

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