[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA/THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 21N79W TO 16N87W.
EXPECT GALE FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 14 FEET SOUTH OF 18N AND WEST OF 87W TO INCLUDE THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. THE GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS WILL LAST
THROUGH 0600 UTC FRIDAY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 8N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
6N47W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 26W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDING FROM FORT PIERCE FLORIDA AT 27N80W TO THE SE
GULF AT 25N88W TO S OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AT 27N97W. NO
SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE FRONT. 20-25 NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH FAIR WEATHER. A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND THE HIGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE N OF 24N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT
TO MOVE SE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. SHOWERS MAY FORM OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 21N79W TO 16N87W.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE N OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 82W-
88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF
82W...TO INCLUDE W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF FRONT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA
... HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE
ATLANTIC E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT
THE COLD FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO NORTHERN
NICARAGUA WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
HISPANIOLA MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. PRESENTLY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS ALOFT OVER THE ISLAND SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY ADVECTS IN FROM E CUBA FRIDAY EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N67W
TO E CUBA AT 21N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30
NM OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE THE S BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM NW OF THE FRONT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N78W TO FORT PIERCE FLORIDA AT
27N80W. NO SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE FRONT. A LARGE
1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N44W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
27N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 48W-60W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E OVER
THE W ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE E
AND WEAKEN TO AN UPPER TROUGH WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA

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