[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA/THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...

A COLD FRONT IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 22N79W TO 18.5N84W TO
16N85.5W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS REACHING 11 FEET...IN THE AREA OF THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...TO THE SOUTH OF 17.5N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO
88W. THE GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 9N13W...TO 8N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N17W TO
6N23W 5N33W AND 5N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 29W AND 38W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 5N
BETWEEN 10W AND 22W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W
AND 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 7N SOUTHWARD FROM 12W
EASTWARD...AND FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 41W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.A....BEYOND
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF GEORGIA AND ALABAMA...INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
COAST OF EAST CENTRAL MEXICO...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH. IT
CROSSES FLORIDA...JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...MOVING
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 25N77W...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N79W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 18N84W...CURVING THROUGH EASTERN SECTIONS OF HONDURAS...
CURVING THROUGH EL SALVADOR...INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
GUATEMALA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 45 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N83W 16N86W. IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N71W 27N75W 22N81W...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 22N81W 16N84W.

STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE
MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W...ALONG THE MEXICO COAST...INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGHB...KGBK...
KGRY...KATP...KIPN...AND KDLP. ICAO STATION KGUL HAS REPORTED
SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED
IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS IN HARLINGEN...BROWNSVILLE...AND PORT
ISABEL. THE VISIBILITY WAS AS LOW AS 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG AT
27/0915 UTC AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT. THE VISIBILITY
CURRENTLY IS ABOUT 7 MILES.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N49W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG
29N60W 21N61W 20N64W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N64W...TO
THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N68W...AND INTO COLOMBIA NEAR
6N71W. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM
VENEZUELA...TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. PART OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW BECOMES
CAUGHT UP IN THE LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE 22N49W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. ANOTHER PART OF
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CAUGHT UP IN LARGE-SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 60W. THE POINT OF DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW FOR THE BAND OF
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IS NEAR 20N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 43W AND
50W...AROUND THE 22N49W CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 42W AND 64W...AND FROM 5N TO
19N BETWEEN 40W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 65W IN THE EASTERN
PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N79W...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N84W...CURVING THROUGH EASTERN SECTIONS OF
HONDURAS...CURVING THROUGH EL SALVADOR...INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N83W 16N86W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 22N81W
16N84W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 19N79W...BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IN A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER...TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA-TO-THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA NEAR 11N...AND IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. IT IS MOVING ON TOP OF MIDDLE LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS NEAR 15N74W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
27/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.15 IN
GUADELOUPE...AND 0.15 IN HAVANA IN CUBA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IS IN SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA FROM
10N NORTHWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND
PANAMA FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W EASTWARD. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 70W AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND IN LA
ROMANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN PUNTA
CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WITH A TROUGH WILL REACH HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WESTERLY WIND FLOW
FLOW UNTIL THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH
HISPANIOLA. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A TROUGH TO THE
EAST AND A RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 36N7W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...JUST OFF THE COASTS OF PORTUGAL
AND SPAIN...THROUGH MOROCCO...THE WESTERN SAHARA...AND
MAURITANIA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N33W 23N25W 22N17W.

ONE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 34N44W...TO 29N29W 25N22W...AND INTO SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN SAHARA. A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
SAME 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...TO 34N50W 32N60W...TOWARD
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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